\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8bf4\uff1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u4e9b\u5e38\u8bc6\u7f62\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u70b9\u513f\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u8c01\u4e0d\u61c2\u554a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bf4\uff1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u4f60\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6ee1\u6ee1\uff0c\u5927\u8111\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u7be1\u6539\u4f60\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f60\u603b\u662f\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u201c\u6211\u5f53\u7136\u77e5\u9053\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u8981\u8f93\u4e86\u3002\u201d
\n\u201c\u6211\u65e9\u6599\u5230\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u3002\u201d
\n\u201c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u5e38\u8bc6\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u201d
\n\u201c\u6211\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u8981\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\u3002\u201d
\n\u5e76\u4e14\u575a\u4fe1\u4e0d\u7591\u8fd9\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u4f60\u654f\u9510\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u548c\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5f53\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5e76\u4e0d\u5982\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4fee\u6539\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f7f\u81ea\u5df1\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u4e48\u767d\u75f4\u3002\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u91cc\u5e0c\u671b\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e9b\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u663e \u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u65e0\u6bd4\u795e\u52c7\uff0c\u6599\u4e8b\u5982\u795e\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u4f60\u5c31\u8fd9\u4e48\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4e86\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5728\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u4ee5\u540e\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u522b\u89c9\u5f97\u4e22\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4f60\u662f\u4e2a\u666e\u901a\u4eba\uff0c\u72af\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u72af\u5f97 \u9519\u8bef\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\uff1f\u90a3\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u4e00\u7ec4\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1a<\/p>\n
Harvard\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u575a\u6301\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e7\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u5f88\u96be\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6\u76f8\u6096\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u8c8c\u4f3c\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\uff0c\u8d8a\u8001\u8d8a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e9f\u8bdd\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4f60\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e48\uff1f\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u5bf9\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u62b5\u89e6\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5e38\u8bc6\uff01<\/p>\n
\u770b\uff0c\u4f60\u53c8\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u4e86\u5427\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6765\u770b\u770b\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1a<\/p>\n
Alberta\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6709\u7740\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u667a\u6167\u548c\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u7d2f\u79ef\uff0c\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u4f1a\u6bd418\u5c81\u6bdb\u5934\u5c0f\u5b69\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u63d0\u524d\u5b8c\u62104\u5e74\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u592a\u8001\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u8fd9\u8c8c\u4f3c\u4e5f\u662f\u5e38\u8bc6\u3002\u542c\u4e0a\u53bb\u5f88\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5f88\u9760\u8c31\u561b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u5230\u5e95\u54ea\u4e2a\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u5462\uff1f\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u6682\u4e14\u5ffd\u7565Harvard\u548cAlberta\u7684\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u8d8a\u8001\u8d8a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b66\u4e60\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u592a\u8001\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fe9\u5b9e\u9a8c\u90fd\u662f\u6211\u634f\u9020\u7684\u3002\uff08\u7528\u634f\u9020\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6765\u8bc1\u5b9e\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u591a\u4e48\u7f8e\u5999\u4e14\u4ee4\u4eba\u53d1\u6307\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u8981\u611f\u8c22\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u4f5c\u8005DavidG.Meyers\u7ae5\u978b\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u4e4b\u89c1\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n
\u4f60\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u90fd\u5f88\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u5f53\u4f60\u5b66\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u4f60\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u7684\u8111\u888b\u611f\u89c9\u4e0d\u5230\u51b3\u7b56\u5931\u8bef\u7684\u632b\u8d25\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n
1986\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cKarlTeigen\u7ae5\u978b\u62c9\u6765\u4e00\u5e2e\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5224\u65ad\u5404\u79cd\u8c1a\u8bed\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
Teigen\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u53e4\u4eba\u4e91\uff0c\u2018\u4eba\u4e0d\u53ef\u8c8c\u76f8\uff0c\u6c34\u4e0d\u53ef\u6597\u91cf\u3002\u2019\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e66\u7684\u5c01\u9762\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u3002\u201d\u5b66\u751f\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u592a\u5bf9\u4e86\uff0c\u592a\u667a\u6167\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u662f\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u7684\u5462\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e66\u7684\u5c01\u9762\u6765\u5224\u5b9a\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\uff1f\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u591a\u89c1\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u518d\u6765\u770b\u770b\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u4e2a\u9e2d\u5b50\uff0c\u6e38\u6cf3\u4e5f\u50cf\u4e2a\u9e2d\u5b50\uff0c\u8fd8\u8ddf\u4e2a\u9e2d\u5b50\u4e00\u6837\u5471\u5471\u53eb\uff0c\u90a3\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5927\u6982\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u4e2a\u9e2d\u5b50\uff1f\u201d\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4e5f\u50cf\u4e2a\u5e38\u8bc6\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u54ea\u4e2a\u624d\u662f\u771f\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u56de\u5230Teigen\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u53bb\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8c1a\u8bed\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8c1a\u8bed\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u89c9\u5f97\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed6\u8bf4 \u201c\u7231\u80fd\u6218\u80dc\u80c6\u602f\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9053\u7406\u3002\u5f53\u4ed6\u518d\u8bf4\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u7231\u771f\u7684\u9700\u8981\u52c7\u6c14\uff0c\u53bb\u9762\u5bf9\u6d41\u8a00\u871a\u8bed\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u6837\u7167\u5355\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bd5\u7740\u8bc1\u660e\u901a\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u5176\u5b9e\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u662f\u5e38\u8bc6\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u5f53\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u8bb0\u8005\u548c\u95e8\u5916\u6c49\u4eec\u88ab\u544a\u77e5\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u5f53\u7136\u5566\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e9\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u5566~\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u7684\u561b\u201d\uff08\u4f60\u4e5f\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u5427\uff1f\u6240\u4ee5\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u752d\u4e0d\u597d\u610f\u601d\u4e0d\u627f\u8ba4\u5566\uff01\uff09<\/p>\n
Teigen\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u540c\u6837\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u5728\u4f5c\u602a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f60\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u81ea\u5df1\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u66f4\u8d34\u8fd1\u4e8e\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4f60\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u65e6\u4f60\u4ece\u9519\u8bef\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u628a\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u884c\u5f84\u6539\u6389\uff0c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u518d\u5b58\u7740\u5783\u573e\u7bb1\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u91cc\u4f60\u4f1a\u628a\u4f60\u72af\u4e0b\u7684\u9519\u5220\u6389\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5728\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u91cc\u5220\u6389\u9519\u8bef\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u9664\u4f60\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u6ca1\u9519\uff0c\u4f60\u5728\u5bf9\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u6492\u8c0e\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5374\u7ed9\u4f60\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u597d\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5982\u540c\u5361\u8010\u57fa\u6885\u9647\u7684BaruchFischhoff\u7ae5\u978b\u8bf4\u7684\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u597d\u5904\uff08\u8ba9\u4f60\u81ea\u4fe1\u6ee1\u6ee1\u7684\u770b\u5411\u5c06\u6765\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5371\u5bb3\u6781\u5927\uff08\u91cd\u5851\u4f60\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65e9\u5728\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u603b\u7edf\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7834\u51b0\u4e4b\u65c5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cBaruchFischhoff\u7ae5\u978b\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u7740\u624b\u7b56\u5212\u5982\u4f55\u628a\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u89c1\u8d64\u679c\u679c\u7684\u5c55\u793a\u5728\u9a84\u50b2\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u9762\u524d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u95ee\u4e86\u4e00\u5e2e\u4eba\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u5728\u8fd9\u6b21\u7834\u51b0\u4e4b\u65c5\u4e2d\u4f1a\u88ab\u6572\u5b9a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e4b\u3002\u65c5\u7a0b\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u53c8\u95ee\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f53\u521d\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u8981\u5927\u5927\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f1a\u4e0d\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5df2\u77e5\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5ffd\u7565\u5176\u4ed6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u56de\u5fc6\u4f60\u6700\u521d\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u5f53\u65f6\u6240\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
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