{"id":1571,"date":"2011-05-15T21:53:00","date_gmt":"2011-05-15T01:53:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2013-11-11T10:25:47","modified_gmt":"2013-11-11T02:25:47","slug":"%e4%ba%ba%e7%b1%bb%e5%b8%b8%e8%a7%81%e7%9a%84%e5%8d%81%e7%a7%8d%e6%80%9d%e8%80%83%e8%b0%ac%e8%af%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/1571.html","title":{"rendered":"\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5341\u79cd\u601d\u8003\u8c2c\u8bef"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u771f\u662f\u4e2a\u5947\u5999\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u77e5\u89c9\uff08cognition\uff09\uff0c\u601d\u8003\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u5904\u7406\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u5916\u754c\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u7741\u5f00\u4f60\u7684\u53cc\u773c\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u8111\u5c31\u627f\u53d7\u7740 \u5916\u754c\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u70ae\u51fb\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u4e13\u6ce8\u7684\u5728\u60f3\u4e00\u4ef6\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u5374\u5728\u5904\u7406\u7740\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u77e5\u89c9\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u65f6\u5e38\u505a\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u9519 \u8bef\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff08cognitivebiases\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u4e0a\u6f14\u7ece\u7740\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6027\u522b\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u667a\u529b\u6216\u8005\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0 \u7d20\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u58f0\u540d\u8fdc\u626c\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u719f\u77e5\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5219\u9c9c\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u4e9b\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u8eab\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5728\u4f60\u5c06\u6765\u72af\u9519\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c \u5148\u6709\u4e2a\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">10.\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bba(Gambler\u2019sFallacy)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f1a\u56e0\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 \u4e8b\u60c5\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u629b\u63b7\u4e00\u679a\u786c\u5e01\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4eba\u5934\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d8\u7684\uff0c\u4eba\u5934\u671d\u4e0a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6c38\u8fdc\u662f50%\uff0c\u548c\u4f60\u5728\u524d\u5341\u6b21\u91cc\u629b\u51fa\u7684\u662f\u53cd \u9762\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u6709\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u8d4c\u535a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u6bd4\u65b9\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u73a9\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u56db\u76d8\u90fd\u5728\u9ed1\u8272\u4e00\u8fb9\u505c\u4e0b\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u8fd9\u76d8\u5c31\u8981\u5728\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u4e00\u8fb9\u505c\u4e0b\u5417\uff1f \u663e\u7136\u9519\u4e86\uff01\u5728\u7ea2\u8272\u5904\u505c\u7559\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8fd8\u662f47.37%\u3002\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u504f\u89c1\u8ba9\u8bb8\u591a\u8d4c\u5f92\u8f93\u4e86\u5927\u628a\u7684\u94b1\uff0c\u5929\u771f\u7684\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">9.\u53cd\u5e94\u6027\uff08Reactivity\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u53cd\u5e94\u6027\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u65f6\u5448\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u5916\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa20\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u970d\u5c71\u5de5\u4f5c\u5ba4\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u706f\u5149\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u9020\u6210\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0 \u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\uff0c\u8c03\u8282\u706f\u5149\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u6709\u964d\u5230\u7684\u5e73\u5e38\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u706f\u5149\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5de5\u4eba\u4eec\u88ab\u89c2 \u5bdf\u7740\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u53cd\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2a\u4f53\u5bdf\u89c9\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u65f6\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u4f18\u79c0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u5e94\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u662f\u4e2a\u5f88\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c \u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u201c\u53cc\u76f2\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u63a7\u5236\u3002\uff08\u201c\u76f2\u201d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u88ab\u9690\u7792\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">8.\u5e7b\u60f3\u6027\u89c6\u9519\u89c9\uff08Pareidolia\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5e7b\u60f3\u6027\u89c6\u9519\u89c9\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u628a\u968f\u673a\u9047\u5230\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u6216\u56fe\u50cf\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u770b\u89c1\u4e86\u5929\u4e0a\u7684\u4e91\u6735\u50cf\u53ea\u6050\u9f99\u3001\u8036\u7a23\u3001\u7194\u7089\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5728\u78c1\u5e26\u5012\u64ad\u65f6\u542c\u51fa\u4e86\u522b\u6837\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5e7b\u60f3\u6027 \u89c6\u9519\u89c9\u7684\u663e\u8457\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5e7b\u60f3\u6027\u89c6\u9519\u89c9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u754c\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u662f\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u989d\u5916\u542b\u4e49\u90fd\u662f\u611f\u53d7\u8005\u6240\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a \u7f57\u590f\u58a8\u8ff9\u6d4b\u9a8c\uff08\u8bd1\u8005\uff1aRorschachinkblottest\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8ba9\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u4e0d\u89c4\u5219\u58a8\u8ff9\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5728\u65e0\u62d8\u675f\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u663e\u9732\u51fa \u5176\u4e2a\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4e2a\u6027\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u5229\u7528\u5e7b\u60f3\u6027\u89c6\u9519\u89c9\u6765\u63a5\u8fd1\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u53c2\u4e0e\u6d4b\u9a8c\u7684\u4eba\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u770b\u4e00\u7ec4\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u56fe\u7247\uff0c\u5e76\u8981\u63cf\u8ff0\u51fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u4ed6\u4eec \u7684\u56de\u7b54\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6398\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">7.\u81ea\u9a8c\u9884\u8a00\uff08Self-fulfillingProphecy\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u81ea\u9a8c\u9884\u8a00 \u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u83b7\u53d6\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5df2\u6709\u89c2\u70b9\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u81ea\u9a8c\u9884\u8a00\u662f\u4e2a\u8ba9\u9884\u8a00\u81ea\u8eab\u53d8\u6210\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u5c06\u5728\u5b66\u6821\u91cc\u8868\u73b0\u975e\u5e38\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u5c31\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u52aa\u529b\u5730\u53bb\u9762\u5bf9\u6211 \u7684\u4f5c\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6211\u5c31\u771f\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6211\u6240\u6599\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u548c\u670b\u53cb\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5c31\u8981\u641e\u7838\u4e86\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u6709\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff0c \u6709\u610f\u5730\u8131\u8eab\u79bb\u5f00\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u7684\u53cd\u5dee\uff0c\u6211\u786e\u786e\u5b9e\u5b9e\u7684\u628a\u5173\u7cfb\u641e\u7838\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u5deb\u5e08\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u529b\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u4e00\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u690d\u5165\u4f60\u7684\u8111\u6d77\u91cc\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f60\u5c31\u771f\u7684\u8ba9\u4eba\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a \u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u9a8c\u9884\u8a00\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u662f\u6307\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684GDP\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8fc7\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\u4e4b\u540e\u4f60\u624d\u4f1a\u77e5\u9053 \u4f60\u6b63\u5904\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0cGDP\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u82d7\u5934\u4e00\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5a92\u4f53\u5c31\u62a5\u9053\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5927\u8870 \u9000\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">6.\u6655\u8f6e\u6548\u5e94\uff08haloeffect\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6655\u8f6e\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u6307\u4e2a\u4f53\u6216\u79ef\u6781\u6216\u6d88\u6781\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4f1a\u5f25\u6563\u5230\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u611f\u77e5 \u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u601d\u8003\u504f\u5dee\u5728\u96c7\u5458\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u5e38\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5458\u5de5,Biff\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5929\u4e2d\u90fd\u8fdf\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u65adBiff\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5bb6\u4f19 \u6709\u70b9\u61d2\u60f0\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0d\u592a\u5173\u5fc3\u3002Biff\u7684\u8fdf\u5230\u662f\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ed6\u7684\u8f66\u574f\u4e86\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u4fdd\u59c6\u5f53\u5929\u6ca1\u6765\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5929\u6c14\u5b9e\u5728\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a Biff\u4e0d\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6d88\u6781\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u63a8\u65adBiff\u662f\u4e2a\u574f\u5458\u5de5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u4f53\u6001\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u677f \uff08PhysicalAttractivenessStereotype\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u751f\u6d3b\u60f3\u8981\u5bfb\u6c42\u7684\u7279\u8d28\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5e78\u798f\u3001\u6210\u529f\u3001 \u667a\u6167\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u4e4e\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u88ab\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u4f18\u5148\u7684\u5f85\u9047\u5982\u597d\u5de5\u4f5c\u597d\u6536\u5165\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u5c31\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u9a8c\u9884\u8a00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">5.\u7fa4\u96c6\u5fc3\u6001\uff08HerdMentality\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u7fa4\u96c6\u5fc3\u6001\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u8d8b\u5411\u4e8e\u91c7\u7eb3\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u8ddf\u968f\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u611f\u89c9\u66f4\u52a0\u5b89\u7a33\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fc3\u6001\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u66b4\u5f92\u5fc3\u6001\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u2013\u538b\u529b\u5747\u5206\u3002 \u7fa4\u96c6\u5fc3\u6001\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u536b\u751f\u65f6\u5c1a\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u670d\u9970\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001\u7231\u597d\u3001\u98ce\u683c\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u8be5\u6709\u4e00\u4f19\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u5f88\u6f47\u6d12\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8eab\u4f53\u529b\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e9b\u6781\u4e0d\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u4e5f\u6ca1\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5374\u5927\u884c\u5176\u9053\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7fa4\u96c6\u5fc3\u6001\u3002\u50cf\u8df3\u4f1e\u88e4\u3001\u5ba0\u7269\u77f3\u3001\u9cbb\u9c7c\u3001\u9525\u5f62\u80f8\u7f69\u3001\u624e\u67d3\u3001\u6d77\u7334\u8fd8\u670980\u5e74\u4ee3\uff08\u987a\u4fbf\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0a\u9762\u90a3\u5f20\u56fe\u7247\u91cc\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">4.\u5bf9\u6297(reactance)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5bf9\u6297\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u8d8b\u5411\u4e8e\u505a\u51fa\u522b\u4eba\u6240\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u53cd\u9762\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u62b5\u6297\u4e00\u79cd\u5185\u5fc3\u5bdf\u89c9\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u8981\u9650\u5236\u4f60\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u53db\u9006\u7684\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u51fa\u4e8e\u62c5\u5fc3\u81ea\u7531\u548c\u9009\u62e9 \u6743\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\u800c\u62b5\u5236\u6743\u5a01\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4f5c\u5bf9\u6297\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u6709\u65f6\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u6210\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5728\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u91cc\u50ac\u4fc3\u7740\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u201c\u62b5\u6297\u5fc3\u7406\u201d\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u62b5\u6297\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002\u8bd5\u7740\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5c0f\u5b69\uff09\u53bb\u505a\u4f60\u8981\u6c42\u6240\u505a\u7684\u53cd\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u4e8e\u62b5\u89e6\u505a\u51fa\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">3.\u53cc\u66f2\u8d34\u73b0\uff08HyperbolicDiscounting\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u53cc\u66f2\u8d34\u73b0\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u5b81\u613f\u8981\u91d1\u989d\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u773c\u524d\u916c\u52b3\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u91d1\u989d\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u65e5\u540e\u62a5\u916c\u3002\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u6709\u5173\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5ef6\u8fdf \u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u957f\u77ed\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u65f6\u662f\u4e2a\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8bf4\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u613f\u610f\u4eca\u5929\u62ff20\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u4eca\u5929\u6536\u5230100\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u9009\u62e9\u66f4\u5927\u7684 \u4e00\u7b14\u94b1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5143\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u5728\u8d2c\u503c\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u5047\u8bbe\u5229\u7387\u662f9%\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5229\u7387\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u6027\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u5f88\u6de1\u5b9a\u5730\u9009\u62e9\u73b0\u5728\u768491.74\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7684100\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7136 \u800c\uff0c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u5728\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5230\u624b\u548c\u7b49\u5f85\u660e\u5929\u6536\u83b7\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7a76\u7adf\u613f\u610f\u5c11\u62ff\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u4f60\u662f\u60f3\u73b0\u5728\u5f97\u523050\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u4eca\u5929\u83b7\u5f97100\u7f8e\u5143\u5462\uff1f\u73b0\u5728\u53ea\u80fd\u62ff40\u7f8e \u5143\u5462\uff1f\u4f60\u7684\u5e95\u9650\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">2.\u627f\u8bfa\u5347\u7ea7\uff08EscalationofCommitment\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u627f\u8bfa\u5347\u7ea7\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u8d8b \u5411\u4e8e\u7ee7\u7eed\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u4eec\u5148\u524d\u5e76\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e9b\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u3002\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u6539\u53d8\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c1d\u8bd5\u9006\u8f6c\u8fd9\u4e00 \u5207\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u603b\u662f\u5f3a\u8feb\u7740\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u606a\u5b88\u6700\u521d\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0a\u505a\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u53ea\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u6253\u4e86\u6c34\u6f02\u7684\u82b1\u8d39\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u7528\u4e86\u534a\u751f\u7684 \u79ef\u84c4\u505a\u4e00\u95e8\u751f\u610f\u30026\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6869\u751f\u610f\u660e\u663e\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f88\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u4e86\uff0c\u7406\u667a\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u957f\u75db\u4e0d\u5982\u77ed\u75db\uff0c\u653e\u5f03\u8fd9\u6869\u751f\u610f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u7531\u4e8e\u5df2\u7ecf\u635f\u5931\u4e86\u7684\u79ef\u84c4\uff0c\u4f60\u51b3\u5b9a\u653e\u624b\u4e00\u640f\u4e3a \u4f60\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u94b1\uff0c\u4f01\u56fe\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bcc\u4f59\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u80fd\u626d\u8f6c\u4f60\u7684\u751f\u610f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">1.\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u6548\u5e94\uff08PlaceboEffect\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5b89 \u6170\u5242\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u6548\u7528\u7684\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u6cbb\u6108\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u7269\u8d28\u6700\u540e\u5374\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6240\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u533b\u7597\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u8ba9\u60a3\u5c0f\u75be\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u670d\u7528\u7cd6\u7247\uff0c\u5728\u7597\u6548\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d \u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e2a\u79d1\u5b66\u8c1c\u9898\u3002\u6709\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u5316\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u6307\u51fa\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u201c\u671f\u671b\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff08\u5728\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u671f\u671b\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u6709 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