{"id":2998,"date":"2013-08-03T22:17:57","date_gmt":"2013-08-03T14:17:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/?p=2998"},"modified":"2013-08-03T22:17:57","modified_gmt":"2013-08-03T14:17:57","slug":"%e6%94%be%e8%af%b8%e5%8f%a4%e4%bb%8a%e7%9a%86%e5%87%86%e7%9a%84%e6%9d%83%e5%8a%9b%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/2998.html","title":{"rendered":"\u653e\u8bf8\u53e4\u4eca\u7686\u51c6\u7684\u6743\u529b\u89c4\u5219"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u7684\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u56fd\u738b\u5229\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u5b8c\u5168\u6709\u7406\u7531\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7684\u5076\u50cf\u3002\u4ed6\u5927\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u5728\u56db\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u628a\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u5236\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u6210\u529f\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u8d4b\u4e88\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6210\u5e74\u7537\u5b50\u9009\u4e3e\u6743\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u524d\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7acb\u6cd5\u5141\u8bb8\u5de5\u4eba\u7f62\u5de5\u3002\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5987\u5973\u513f\u7ae5\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u6b27\u6d32\u3002\u6bd4\u5229\u65f61881\u5e74\u5c31\u666e\u53ca\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5973\u5b69\u90fd\u80fd\u4e0a\u5230\u521d\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u57281889\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7981\u6b62\u5341\u4e8c\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u513f\u7ae5\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u5728\u5229\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u6cbb\u4e0b\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u50cf\u653f\u6cbb\u4e00\u6837\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5927\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4ed6\u6bd4\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u66f4\u65e9\u91c7\u53d6\u5efa\u8bbe\u516c\u8def\u548c\u94c1\u8def\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u51cf\u5c11\u5931\u4e1a\u548c\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u7136\u800c\u5728\u975e\u6d32\u521a\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\uff0c\u786e\u5207\u7684\u8bf4\u662f\u5229\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u672c\u4eba\u7684\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\uff0c\u4ed6\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f62\u8c61\u3002\u521a\u679c\u4eba\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5987\u5973\u513f\u7ae5\uff0c\u5728\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u6743\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u5974\u96b6\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8b66\u5bdf\u90e8\u961f\u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u4e0b\u52b3\u52a8\uff0c\u52a8\u8f84\u88ab\u65bd\u4ee5\u65ad\u624b\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u9177\u5211\uff0c\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u5343\u4e07\u4eba\u88ab\u8feb\u5bb3\u81f4\u6b7b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5229\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u5728\u6a61\u80f6\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u5de8\u989d\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u63a8\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5374\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u65bd\u884c\u6700\u6b8b\u66b4\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\uff1f\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u7acb\u5373\u4f1a\u8bf4\u8fd9\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u201c\u5236\u5ea6\u201d\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u7b54\u6848\u8fd8\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u521a\u679c\uff0c\u5374\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u72ec\u88c1\uff1f\u96be\u9053\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5229\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u53ea\u7231\u672c\u56fd\u4eba\u6216\u8005\u6709\u79cd\u65cf\u6b67\u89c6\uff1f\u4f46\u540e\u6765\u521a\u679c\u81ea\u5df1\u201c\u9009\u201d\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u3002\u5728The Predictioneer\u2019s Game\uff08\u300a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e08\u7684\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u300b\uff09\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u91cc\uff0c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u80e1\u4f5b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u548c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u6559\u6388Bruce Bueno de Mesquita\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5728\u521a\u679c\uff0c\u5229\u5965\u6ce2\u5fb7\u4e8c\u4e16\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8ba9\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u9ad8\u5174\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\uff1b\u800c\u5728\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5fc5\u987b\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\u624d\u884c\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\u8ddf\u201c\u5236\u5ea6\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u533a\u522b\u5728\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u8ba9\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u6570\u4e0d\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u201c\u89c4\u5b9a\u201d\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Bueno de Mesquita\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u7814\u7a76\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u591f\u76f8\u5f53\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u5f88\u591a\u653f\u6cbb\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u8fd8\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u4ee5\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u201d\u548c\u201c\u72ec\u88c1\u201d\u6765\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u5fc5\u987b\u7528\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u6765\u63cf\u5199\u3002\u4ee5\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u4e09\u56f4\u201d\u5c31\u662f\u5c42\u5c42\u5d4c\u5957\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u4eba\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\uff1a\u5728\u540d\u4e49\u4e0a\u6709\u9009\u4e3e\u6743\u548c\u88ab\u9009\u4e3e\u6743\u7684\u5168\u4f53\u516c\u6c11\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e2d\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u8c01\u5f53\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5b9e\u9645\u9009\u6c11\uff1a\u90a3\u4e9b\u771f\u6b63\u5bf9\u8c01\u5f53\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u662f\u9009\u4e3e\u8fd9\u5929\u51fa\u6765\u6295\u7968\u7684\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u5bf9\u6c99\u7279\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u541b\u4e3b\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u662f\u7687\u5ba4\u6210\u5458\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u80dc\u5229\u8054\u76df\uff1a\u5fc5\u987b\u4f9d\u8d56\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u624d\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u662f\u5728\u5173\u952e\u9009\u533a\u6295\u51fa\u5173\u952e\u4e00\u7968\u8ba9\u4f60\u5f53\u9009\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5bf9\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd9\u662f\u4f60\u5728\u519b\u961f\u548c\u8d35\u65cf\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u652f\u6301\u8005\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u5e76\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u662f\u5426\u4e3e\u884c\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u80dc\u5229\u8054\u76df\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0\u201c\u8054\u76df\u201d\uff09\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u4e3a\u8054\u76df\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8054\u76df\u5bf9\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6709\u63a8\u7ffb\u6743\u2014 \u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u968f\u65f6\u6362\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8054\u76df\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u5982\u679c\u8054\u76df\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u975e\u5e38\u5c11\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u5b83\u90fd\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u770b\u4f3c\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u548c\u6848\u4f8b\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u88ab\u603b\u7ed3\u6210\u4e00\u672c\u5b66\u672f\u8457\u4f5cThe Logic of Political Survival\uff08\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u300b\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u57282011\u5e74\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u672c\u901a\u4fd7\u8457\u4f5cThe Dictator\u2019s Handbook\uff08\u300a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u624b\u518c\u300b\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5728\u901a\u4fd7\u53f2\u4e66\u548c\u5f71\u89c6\u5267\u4e2d\u4eba\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u7814\u7a76\u6743\u672f\uff0c\u60ca\u5f02\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u50cf\u6148\u79a7\u548c\u9b4f\u5fe0\u8d24\u8fd9\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u5f53\u4f4e\u7684\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u628a\u90a3\u4e9b\u9971\u8bfb\u8bd7\u4e66\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u73a9\u5f04\u4e8e\u9f13\u638c\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u96be\u9053\u653f\u6cbb\u6597\u4e89\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u9700\u8981\u7279\u6b8a\u5929\u8d4b\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u5b66\u95ee\u4e48\uff1f\u73b0\u5728Bueno de Mesquita\u7684\u201c\u4e09\u56f4\u201d\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u6293\u4f4f\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6839\u672c\u3002\u6240\u6709\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u5176\u505a\u4e8b\u7684\u7ec8\u6781\u76ee\u7684\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u83b7\u5f97\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u662f\u4fdd\u4f4f\u6743\u529b\u3002\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5373\u4f7f\u6700\u5389\u5bb3\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6309\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u610f\u5fd7\u4e3a\u6240\u6b32\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4f9d\u9760\u8054\u76df\u624d\u80fd\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u53d6\u60a6\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5168\u4f53\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u800c\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u8054\u76df\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e00\u5fc3\u4e3a\u6c11\u6216\u8005\u80fd\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u7b79\u5212\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u5e38\u5e38\u5e72\u4e0d\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u8150\u8d25\u900f\u9876\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5374\u5e38\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u4f4d\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6839\u672c\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u201c\u4e09\u56f4\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u56de\u7b54\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u6597\u4e89\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u4e0d\u89e3\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u6731\u5143\u748b\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u6740\u529f\u81e3\uff1f\u53d8\u6cd5\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u56f0\u96be\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6b22\u8fce\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\u5374\u53cd\u5bf9\u7ed9\u9ad8\u6280\u672f\u79fb\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u7279\u522b\u6e20\u9053\uff1f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u63a8\u7ffb\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u6c11\u9009\u653f\u5e9c\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u8d8a\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u8d8a\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff1f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1f\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u548c\u8054\u76df\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u4e09\u56f4\u7406\u8bba\u80fd\u628a\u79cd\u79cd\u5e1d\u738b\u4e4b\u672f\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u660e\u660e\u767d\u767d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u7248\u7684\u201c\u539a\u9ed1\u5b66\u201d\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u7248\u7684\u300a\u97e9\u975e\u5b50\u300b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u653f\u5ba2\u641e\u4e2a\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u4ece\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u51fa\u53d1\u6765\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u627e\u7406\u7531\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7ecf\u5e38\u8c08\u8bba\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u53cd\u5bf9\u540c\u6027\u604b\u548c\u5815\u80ce\u4e4b\u7c7b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u6216\u4fdd\u5b88\u601d\u60f3\u90fd\u662f\u8bf4\u7ed9\u8001\u767e\u59d3\u542c\u7684\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u515a\u5404\u81ea\u4ee3\u8868\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5e76\u90fd\u4e89\u53d6\u4e2d\u95f4\u6d3e\u3002\u653f\u5ba2\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6bd4\u8001\u767e\u59d3\u7406\u667a\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u597d\u6076\u51fa\u53d1\u505a\u4e8b\uff0c\u80cc\u540e\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u5229\u76ca\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u300a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u624b\u518c\u300b\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e94\u4e2a\u901a\u7528\u7684\u6743\u529b\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4f60\u662f\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u7684CEO\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u4f60\u5bf9\u5982\u4f55\u6cbb\u7406\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u80fd\u4e0d\u6298\u4e0d\u6263\u5730\u6267\u884c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5c31\u53ef\u4fdd\u65e0\u865e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8981\u8ba9\u8054\u76df\u8d8a\u5c0f\u8d8a\u597d\u3002\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u6536\u4e70\u4ed6\u4eec\u8981\u82b1\u7684\u94b1\u5c31\u8d8a\u5c11\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8981\u8ba9\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\u8d8a\u591a\u8d8a\u597d\u3002\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\u591a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u8054\u76df\u4e2d\u6709\u4eba\u5bf9\u4f60\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f7b\u6613\u66ff\u6362\u6389\u4ed6\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u63a7\u5236\u6536\u5165\u3002\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5fc5\u987b\u77e5\u9053\u94b1\u5728\u54ea\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5fc5\u987b\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u94b1\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u8428\u8fbe\u59c6\u4e0a\u53f0\u4e03\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u638c\u63a7\u4e86\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u597d\u597d\u56de\u62a5\u8054\u76df\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u7ed9\u591f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u591a\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u8981\u4ece\u8054\u76df\u53e3\u888b\u91cc\u5f80\u5916\u62ff\u94b1\u7ed9\u4eba\u6c11\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4efb\u4f55\u6539\u9769\u5982\u679c\u4f24\u5bb3\u5230\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u51ef\u6492\u5927\u5e1d\u66fe\u7ecf\u60f3\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u9047\u523a\u8eab\u4ea1\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u53d8\u6cd5\u8005\u5e38\u5e38\u4ee5\u5931\u8d25\u544a\u7ec8\u3002<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5176\u5b9e\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u7a0e\u6536\u3001\u5356\u8d44\u6e90\u6216\u8005\u5916\u56fd\u63f4\u52a9\u62ff\u5230\u94b1\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u94b1\u628a\u8054\u76df\u5582\u9971\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u5927\u53ef\u81ea\u5df1\u4eab\u53d7\u2014 \u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u662f\u597d\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ff\u6765\u4e3a\u4eba\u6c11\u8c0b\u70b9\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u65e2\u7136\u8054\u76df\u5fc5\u987b\u62ff\u5230\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u800c\u8b66\u5bdf\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8054\u76df\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u5de5\u8d44\u53cd\u800c\u90fd\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f4e\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u7eb5\u5bb9\u8b66\u5bdf\u8150\u8d25\u662f\u6bd4\u76f4\u63a5\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u94b1\u66f4\u65b9\u4fbf\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u529e\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8054\u76df\u662f\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u638c\u63e1\u63a8\u7ffb\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u662f\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u6700\u5927\u654c\u4eba\u3002\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5bf9\u4ed8\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5fc5\u987b\u6536\u4e70\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u5916\u4eba\u66ff\u6362\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u8def\u6613\u5341\u56db\u7ee7\u4f4d\u521d\u671f\u8054\u76df\u91cc\u7684\u8d35\u65cf\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u6269\u5927\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u7ed9\u5916\u4eba\u8fdb\u5165\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6838\u5fc3\u5708\u5b50\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u7528\u65b0\u8d35\u65cf\u66ff\u4ee3\u65e7\u8d35\u65cf\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u628a\u65e7\u8d35\u65cf\u5173\u8fdb\u51e1\u5c14\u8d5b\u5bab\uff0c\u4f7f\u8fd9\u5e2e\u4eba\u7684\u5bcc\u8d35\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u9760\u4ed6\u3002\u5bf9\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8054\u76df\u6210\u5458\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u751a\u81f3\u53cd\u800c\u6709\u5bb3\uff0c\u5fe0\u8bda\u624d\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u6731\u5143\u748b\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u5c60\u622e\u529f\u81e3\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u524a\u5f31\u8054\u76df\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8bc1\u660e\u8054\u76df\u6210\u5458\u662f\u53ef\u66ff\u6362\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u56fd\u7687\u5e1d\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5927\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u79d1\u4e3e\u5236\u5ea6\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u8ba9\u529f\u81e3\u548c\u8d35\u65cf\u59cb\u7ec8\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u611f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u8054\u76df\u548c\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5927\u5c0f\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u6295\u7968\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4e09\u6743\u5206\u7acb\uff0c\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u76d1\u7763\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7ec6\u8282\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u8db3\u591f\u591a\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u5c11\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u72ec\u88c1\u5f0f\u8150\u8d25\u3002\u6b64\u4e66\u4e2d\u6709\u4e2a\u597d\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u8d1d\u5c14\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0d\u8db3\u56db\u4e07\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f88\u5dee\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5176\u5e02\u957f\u5374\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e2a78\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u5e74\u85aa\uff0c\u5176\u5e02\u653f\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u5e74\u85aa\u4e5f\u670910\u4e07\u2014 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small;\">\u56fd\u9645\u5965\u59d4\u4f1a\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8db3\u8054\u90fd\u662f\u5c0f\u8054\u76df\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u5f88\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u4efb\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u5965\u59d4\u4f1a\u603b\u5171\u53ea\u6709115\u4e2a\u59d4\u5458\u5e2d\u4f4d\uff0c\u91cd\u5927\u51b3\u5b9a\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8d6258\u7968\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ea\u8981\u6536\u4e70\u5c11\u6570\u59d4\u5458\u5c31\u80fd\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5de6\u53f3\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u5965\u59d4\u4f1a\u59d4\u5458\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u5965\u8fd0\u4e3e\u529e\u57ce\u5e02\u65f6\u7684\u786e\u4f1a\u63a5\u53d7\u8d3f\u8d42\u3002\u636eBBC\u4f30\u8ba1\u73b0\u5728\u8d3f\u8d42\u5965\u59d4\u4f1a\u59d4\u5458\u7684\u603b\u4ef7\u7801\u5927\u7ea6\u4e0d\u8fc7\u624d\u4e00\u5343\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8db3\u8054\u66f4\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u898113\u7968\uff01\u6240\u4ee5\u8d3f\u8d42\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u7684\u94b1\u5c31\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u636e\u62a5\u9053\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u59d4\u5458\u7684\u4eb2\u53e3\u5f00\u4ef7\u662f\u5355\u4eba\u516b\u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u628a\u4e16\u754c\u676f\u4e3b\u529e\u6743\u4ea4\u7ed9\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8352\u8c2c\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u6d88\u9664\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u6269\u5927\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u5168\u4f53\u5965\u8fd0\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u6295\u7968\u6743\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5965\u59d4\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d5e\u6210\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u867d\u7136\u6709\u5e7f\u5927\u7684\u5c0f\u80a1\u4e1c\uff08\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u6709\u5341\u51e0\u4e2a\u4eba\u3002\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u6781\u5c11\uff0c\u5bf9CEO\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bb9\u6613\u5f62\u6210\u72ec\u88c1\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u60f3\u8c61CEO\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u5e94\u8be5\u8ddf\u4ed6\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u636e\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u300b2012\u5e74\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0cCEO\u5de5\u8d44\u8ddf\u4e1a\u7ee9\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u5173\u7cfb\uff01\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cCEO\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u7b56\u7565\u4e0d\u662f\u641e\u4e1a\u7ee9\u800c\u662f\u641e\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u5b89\u63d2\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4eba\u9a6c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u8d8a\u662f\u5728\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u6709\u4eb2\u4fe1\u7684CEO\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5728\u4f4d\u65f6\u95f4\u5c31\u8d8a\u957f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u60e0\u666e\u5973CEO Carly Fiorina\u56e0\u4e3a\u884c\u4e8b\u9ad8\u8c03\u548c\u9519\u8bef\u6536\u8d2d\u5eb7\u67cf\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e86IT\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u7b11\u8bdd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5979\u5728\u4efb\u5185\u505a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u52a8\u4f5c\u90fd\u7b26\u5408\u6743\u529b\u89c4\u5219\u3002Fiorina\u4e00\u4e0a\u53f0\u5c31\u4e0d\u65ad\u5728\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u6392\u9664\u5f02\u5df1\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u800c\u5979\u4e0d\u987e\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5bf9\u575a\u51b3\u6536\u8d2d\u5eb7\u67cf\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6269\u5927\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u51b2\u6de1\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u52bf\u529b\u3002\u7136\u540e\u5979\u7ed9\u65b0\u7684\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u52a0\u85aa\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u6536\u4e70\u8054\u76df\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u6700\u540e\u56e0\u4e3a\u60e0\u666e\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u5dee\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e00\u8dcc\u518d\u8dcc\uff0cFiorina\u4efb\u804c\u516d\u5e74\u540e\u88ab\u8feb\u57282005\u5e74\u4e0b\u53f0\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u5979\u4ecd\u7136\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u7b14\u5de8\u989d\u9063\u6563\u8d39\u3002\u5176\u5b9eFiorina\u88ab\u8d76\u4e0b\u53f0\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8fd8\u662f\u8463\u4e8b\u4eec\u90fd\u6709\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u5173\u5fc3\u6700\u7ec8\u80dc\u8fc7\u4e86\u5bf9Fiorina\u201c\u559c\u7231\u201d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u60f3\u5018\u82e5\u60e0\u666e\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8Fiorina\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u4e00\u76f4\u5e72\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u4eba\u6c11\u4eab\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6295\u7968\u6743\uff0c\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u5168\u4f53\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6743\u529b\u89c4\u5219\u662f\u5426\u8fd8\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u5462\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e0e\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5e76\u65e0\u672c\u8d28\u533a\u522b\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4f18\u5148\u4fdd\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u94c1\u6746\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Bueno de Mesquita\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8c08\u8bba\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5fc5\u987b\u4e86\u89e3\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e2a\u5e7b\u89c9\u3002\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u62bd\u8c61\u6982\u5ff5\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5229\u76ca \u2014 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barrel\uff09\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u653f\u5ba2\u56de\u62a5\u81ea\u5df1\u9009\u533a\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u300a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u624b\u518c\u300b\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u6743\u529b\u89c4\u5219\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u4f53\u73b0\uff1a\u641e\u96c6\u56e2\u6295\u7968\uff08block voting\uff09\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u8981\u5212\u5206\u9009\u533a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u51cf\u5c11\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\uff1b\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u79fb\u6c11\u5e76\u7ed9\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\u5927\u8d66\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u6269\u5927\u540d\u4e49\u9009\u6c11\uff1b\u4e24\u515a\u90fd\u7279\u522b\u91cd\u89c6\u7a0e\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u94b1\uff1b\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u641e\u798f\u5229\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u652f\u6301\u628a\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u8d39\u6295\u5165\u5230\u7591\u96be\u6742\u75c7\u7b49\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u5bf9\u5bcc\u4eba\u6709\u5229\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u56de\u62a5\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u8054\u76df\uff1b\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53cd\u5bf9\u7ed9\u5bcc\u4eba\u52a0\u7a0e\u548c\u533b\u4fdd\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u80fd\u52a8\u81ea\u5df1\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u79cd\u79cd\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u624b\u6bb5\u4e5f\u662f\u5c61\u89c1\u4e0d\u9c9c\u3002\u5728\u65b0\u52a0\u6ce2\u4e0d\u7ed9\u674e\u5149\u8000\u7684\u515a\u6295\u7968\u7684\u9009\u533a\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u8ba1\u5212\u4f1a\u88ab\u524a\u51cf\uff1b\u6709\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b58\u5728\u76f4\u63a5\u4e70\u7968\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5219\u662f\u54ea\u4e2a\u6751\u5b50\u6295\u7ed9\u6211\u7684\u7968\u6700\u591a\uff0c\u6211\u5f53\u9009\u4e4b\u540e\u5c31\u7ed9\u54ea\u4e2a\u6751\u4fee\u6761\u8def\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6709\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e00\u5e2e\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u771f\u5fc3\u70ed\u7231\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u501f\u52a9\u5916\u56fd\u529b\u91cf\u63a8\u52a8\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u8fd9\u5e2e\u4eba\u592a\u5929\u771f\u4e86\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u786e\u8981\u53d6\u60a6\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u4f46\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u5176\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u5904\u5904\u53d7\u9650\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u5374\u53ef\u4ee5\u50cf\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4e00\u6837\u884c\u4e8b\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7231\u8bf4\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u63a8\u8fdb\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u6b64\u4e66\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u5168\u662f\u80e1\u626f\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u539f\u5219\u662f\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u65bd\u884c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u5219\u662f\u5bf9\u5916\u201c\u63f4\u52a9\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">2010\u5e74\uff0c\u5973\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Dambisa Moyo\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\uff0cDead Aid\uff08\u300a\u63f4\u52a9\u5df2\u6b7b\u300b\uff09\uff0c\u5217\u4e3e\u5927\u91cf\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u6240\u8c13\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u8d77\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u6b63\u9762\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u63f4\u52a9\u91d1\u989d\u548c\u7269\u8d44\u88ab\u5f53\u5730\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5360\u6709\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u597d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8fd9\u7b14\u6536\u5165\u56de\u62a5\u8054\u76df\u3002\u4f60\u60f3\u7ed9\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u9965\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f4\u63a5\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u9996\u5148\u8981\u6c42\u4f60\u4ea4\u7a0e\u3002\u7136\u800c\u660e\u77e5\u63f4\u52a9\u65e0\u6548\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4ecd\u7136\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u63d0\u4f9b\u63f4\u52a9\u5462\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u63f4\u52a9\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u662f\u6536\u4e70\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u63f4\u52a9\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e4c\u5b50\uff0c\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u4ee5\u5bf9\u65b9\u5c0f\u5b69\u4e0a\u5927\u5b66\u4e3a\u540d\u4e49\u7684\u884c\u8d3f\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u5f53\u771f\u53bb\u8003\u5bdf\u8fd9\u94b1\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4ea4\u4e86\u5b66\u8d39\u5c31\u8352\u5510\u4e86\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u66fe\u7ecf\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u57c3\u53ca\u63f4\u52a9\u6765\u4fc3\u6210\u57c3\u4ee5\u548c\u8c08\uff0c\u57c3\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u62ff\u4e86\u94b1\u529e\u4e86\u4e8b\u5374\u5e76\u672a\u5728\u672c\u56fd\u5ba3\u4f20\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u597d\uff0c\u57c3\u53ca\u8001\u767e\u59d3\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u6068\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Bueno de Mesquita\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u8d8a\u662f\u8054\u76df\u4eba\u6570\u5c11\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u6536\u4e70\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6536\u4e70\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u82b1\u4e0d\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u3002\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u7b14\u94b1\u6295\u7ed9\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4ec0\u4e48\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0d\u4e86\uff0c\u6295\u7ed9\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u5374\u53ef\u4ee5\u7acb\u5373\u8ba9\u8be5\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6539\u53d8 \u2014 \u6240\u4ee5\u8d8a\u662f\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u5185\u5978\u3002\u7ed9\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u7b49\u4e8e\u5e2e\u7740\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u6536\u4e70\u8054\u76df\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u6b64\u4e66\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u53d1\u73b0\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f53\u9009\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5b89\u7406\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4efb\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u90fd\u53d8\u7684\u66f4\u843d\u540e\u4e86\uff01\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u6743\u53ef\u4ee5\u6362\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u63f4\u52a9\uff01\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b89\u7406\u4f1a\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u4ece\u5bb9\u6613\u6536\u4e70\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u66f4\u559c\u6b22\u72ec\u88c1\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4ee5\u540e\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u9009\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u4e0d\u5229\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u51fa\u5175\u5e72\u6389\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6362\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u88c1\u5080\u5121\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u667a\u5229\u7684\u76ae\u8bfa\u5207\u7279\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\u96be\u9053\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u63a8\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e48\uff1f\u6ca1\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u559c\u6b22\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u53e3\u5934\u8bf4\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8981\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u62ff\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u6362\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u4e0d\u5e72\u4e86\u3002\u300a\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u624b\u518c\u300b\u751f\u52a8\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u53eb\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5c31\u662fgovernment of, by, and for the people at home\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6b64\u4e66\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5f0a\u7aef\u591a\u6709\u62ab\u9732\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u5bf9\u6b64\u4e66\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6279\u8bc4\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5176\u5927\u5927\u7f8e\u5316\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u80dc\u5229\u8054\u76df\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u5f88\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u610f\u5fd7\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u83b7\u80dc\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u4f53\u73b0\u3002\u4f46\u4e0d\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bba\u8ff0\u662f\u53ef\u53d6\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\u6b64\u4e66\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u6c11\u4e3b\u795e\u5723\u5316\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u70b9\u6124\u4e16\u5ac9\u4fd7\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u544a\u8bc9\u8bfb\u8005\uff0c\u72ec\u88c1\u4f53\u5236\u6536\u4e70\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u6536\u4e70\u591a\u6570\u4eba\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u90fd\u662f\u6536\u4e70\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span 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style=\"font-size: small;\">\u6211\u60f3\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5e26\u6765\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bba\u70b9\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u53bb\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684The Rational Optimist\uff08\u300a\u7406\u6027\u4e50\u89c2\u6d3e\u300b\uff09\u8fd9\u672c\u5927\u8086\u9f13\u5439\u5546\u54c1\u4ea4\u6362\u5e26\u6765\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e00\u5207\u597d\u5904\u7684\u4e66\u6240\u8bba\u8bc1\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u6cd5\u6cbb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u54ea\u4e2a\u5f3a\u4eba\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u8d50\u4e88\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6362\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e92\u76f8\u78e8\u5408\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u4f1a\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u6562\u4e8e\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u591a\u6743\u5229\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u5982\u679c\u8db3\u591f\u591a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u662f\u6240\u6709\u653f\u515a\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4e89\u53d6\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 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