{"id":8003,"date":"2026-03-02T14:37:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T06:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/?p=8003"},"modified":"2026-03-02T14:40:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T06:40:25","slug":"%e4%b8%aa%e4%ba%ba%e6%94%b6%e8%97%8f%e7%9a%84%e5%87%a0%e4%b8%aa%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/8003.html","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2a\u4eba\u6536\u85cf\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6807"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u80a1\u603b\u5e02\u503c \/ \u7f8e\u56fd GDP<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5386\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6 80-100%\uff1b\u8d85\u8fc7 150% \u89c6\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4f30<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/406\/us-buffet-index-gspc\">https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/406\/us-buffet-index-gspc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>S&amp;P 500 \u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c \/ \u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5386\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6 16-17\uff1b\u8d85\u8fc7 25-30 \u89c6\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4f30<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/410\/us-sp500-cyclically-adjusted-price-earnings-ratio\">https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/410\/us-sp500-cyclically-adjusted-price-earnings-ratio<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u503c \/ M2 \u4f9b\u7ed9\u91cf<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u5e94\u4e86\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u81a8\u80c0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u30022000 \u5e74\u662f 3.0\uff0c2008 \u5e74\u662f 2.1 \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/24033\/wilshire5000-to-us-m2\">https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/24033\/wilshire5000-to-us-m2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6563\u6237\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 30 \u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u6563\u6237\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u4e3a\u300c 61% \u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u300d\u3001\u300c 16% \u6301\u6709\u503a\u5238\u300d\u3001\u300c 23% \u6301\u6709\u73b0\u91d1\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/116485\/us-aaii-asset-allocation-survey\">https:\/\/sc.macromicro.me\/collections\/34\/us-stock-relative\/116485\/us-aaii-asset-allocation-survey<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>AIAE \u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u805a\u5408\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6743\u76ca\u5206\u914d\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6574\u4f53\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u80a1\u7968\u5360\u6bd4\uff08\u603b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u503c \/ (\u603b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u503c + \u503a\u5238\u5e02\u503c + \u73b0\u91d1\u603b\u989d)\uff09\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u5386\u53f2\u5747\u503c\u4e3a 37.5%\uff0c2000 \u5e74\u662f 47.8%\uff0c2009 \u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u662f 15.1%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cn.tradingview.com\/script\/oU7Cw6Le-AIAE-Indicator\">https:\/\/cn.tradingview.com\/script\/oU7Cw6Le-AIAE-Indicator<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u88ab\u52a8\u57fa\u91d1\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u57fa\u91d1\u8d44\u4ea7\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u6307\u6570\u57fa\u91d1\uff08indexed\/passive mutual funds + ETFs\uff09\u5360\u957f\u671f\u57fa\u91d1\uff08long-term mutual funds + ETFs\uff09\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ici.org\/research\/stats\/combined_active_index\">https:\/\/www.ici.org\/research\/stats\/combined_active_index<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong class=\"darkify_style_secondary_bg darkify_style_all darkify_processed\" data-darkify_alpha_bg=\"rgba(32, 35, 36, 0.2)\" data-darkify_preserved_classes=\"darkify_style_secondary_bg darkify_style_all darkify_processed\" style=\"background-color: rgba(32, 35, 36, 0.2) !important;\">\u6807\u666e<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong class=\"darkify_style_secondary_bg darkify_style_all darkify_processed\" data-darkify_alpha_bg=\"rgba(32, 35, 36, 0.2)\" data-darkify_preserved_classes=\"darkify_style_secondary_bg darkify_style_all darkify_processed\" style=\"background-color: rgba(32, 35, 36, 0.2) !important;\">500 \u91cc\uff0c\u4e03\u5de8\u5934\u6743\u91cd<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\u80a1\u5e02\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868 500 \u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u88ab\u8fd9\u51e0\u5bb6\u5de8\u5934\u7ed1\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.slickcharts.com\/sp500\">https:\/\/www.slickcharts.com\/sp500<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u878d\u8d44\u4e70\u80a1\u89c4\u6a21<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u6a21\u521b\u4e0b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u786e\u5b9e\u5f88\u70ed\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u501f\u94b1\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u4f46\u6760\u6746\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.finra.org\/rules-guidance\/key-topics\/margin-accounts\/margin-statistics\">https:\/\/www.finra.org\/rules-guidance\/key-topics\/margin-accounts\/margin-statistics<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u73b0\u91d1\u4ed3\u4f4d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u5168\u7403\u6216\u7f8e\u56fd\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662fequity funds\uff09\u6301\u6709\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6807\uff08\u4f4e\u73b0\u91d1=\u9ad8\u4ed3\u4f4d\/\u770b\u591a\uff09\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e 4% \u5e38\u89e6\u53d1\u201csell signal\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65e0\u516c\u5f00\u53ef\u7528\u7f51\u7ad9\u67e5\u8be2\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\uff1aBank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6807 \u7f8e\u80a1\u603b\u5e02\u503c \/ \u7f8e\u56fd GDP \u5386\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6 80-100%\uff1b\u8d85\u8fc7 150% \u89c6\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4f30 https:\/ [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-diary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8003"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8006,"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8003\/revisions\/8006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyle.ai\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}